MatchVantage / Evidence
Evidence
Patterns from this season and this week — emerging trends stay separate from validated advice. Thin slices become research goals, not recommendations. Coaching only uses what shows up here.
381 games considered · Season 9 · week of 2026-07-27 · your baseline 56% · updated 8/1/2026, 4:58:40 AM · 180 early signals hidden · 3 near-average hidden
Personal rules
Clear difference from your usual win rate, with enough games behind it. Near-average rows are hidden.
Black Widow: 88% WR over 59 decisive games (32 pts above baseline).
Personal rule · 59 games · 52W/7L · +32 pts vs your baseline
Validated
Clear difference from your usual win rate, with enough games behind it. Near-average rows are hidden.
Magneto: 83% WR over 29 decisive games (27 pts above baseline).
Validated · 29 games · 24W/5L · +27 pts vs your baseline
map Arakko: 79% WR over 24 decisive games (23 pts above baseline).
Validated · 24 games · 19W/5L · +23 pts vs your baseline
map Celestial Husk: 40% WR over 25 decisive games (16 pts below baseline).
Validated · 25 games · 10W/15L · -16 pts vs your baseline
Emerging trends
Early signal — not definitive coaching advice yet. Near-average noise is hidden.
Cyclops: 73% WR over 15 decisive games (17 pts above baseline).
Emerging · 15 games · 11W/4L · +17 pts vs your baseline
map Yggdrasill Path: 47% WR over 30 decisive games (9 pts below baseline).
Emerging · 30 games · 14W/16L · -9 pts vs your baseline
map Museum of Contemplation: 46% WR over 24 decisive games (10 pts below baseline).
Emerging · 24 games · 11W/13L · -10 pts vs your baseline
map Heart Of Heaven: 45% WR over 22 decisive games (11 pts below baseline).
Emerging · 22 games · 10W/12L · -11 pts vs your baseline
map Midtown: 65% WR over 26 decisive games (9 pts above baseline).
Emerging · 26 games · 17W/9L · +9 pts vs your baseline
Rocket Raccoon in Quick Match: 67% WR over 15 decisive games (11 pts above baseline).
Emerging · 15 games · 10W/5L · +11 pts vs your baseline
map Krakoa: 64% WR over 25 decisive games (8 pts above baseline).
Emerging · 25 games · 16W/9L · +8 pts vs your baseline
mode Competitive: 50% WR over 28 decisive games (6 pts below baseline).
Emerging · 28 games · 14W/14L · -6 pts vs your baseline
map Hall Of Djalia: 63% WR over 24 decisive games (6 pts above baseline).
Emerging · 24 games · 15W/9L · +6 pts vs your baseline
map Symbiotic Surface: 63% WR over 24 decisive games (6 pts above baseline).
Emerging · 24 games · 15W/9L · +6 pts vs your baseline
Research opportunities
Not recommendations — prioritized gaps to gather enough data for a fair call.
Play 4 more decisive Black Widow games on Yggdrasill Path.
You have 7 games here — not enough for an Emerging trend yet (need 11).
Play 5 more decisive Black Widow games on Symbiotic Surface.
You have 6 games here — not enough for an Emerging trend yet (need 11).
Play 8 more decisive Devil Dinosaur games on Arakko.
Only 3 decisive games on this map — gather more before comparing to your overall Devil Dinosaur performance.
Play 8 more decisive Mantis games on Shin-Shibuya.
Only 3 decisive games on this map — gather more before comparing to your overall Mantis performance.
Play 8 more decisive Magneto games on Heart Of Heaven.
Only 3 decisive games on this map — gather more before comparing to your overall Magneto performance.
Play 8 more decisive Magneto games on Museum of Contemplation.
Only 3 decisive games on this map — gather more before comparing to your overall Magneto performance.
Play 9 more decisive Cyclops games on Midtown.
Only 2 decisive games on this map — gather more before comparing to your overall Cyclops performance.
Play 9 more decisive Cyclops games on Hell's Heaven.
Only 2 decisive games on this map — gather more before comparing to your overall Cyclops performance.
Play 9 more decisive Devil Dinosaur games on Shin-Shibuya.
Only 2 decisive games on this map — gather more before comparing to your overall Devil Dinosaur performance.
Play 9 more decisive Mantis games on Royal Palace.
Only 2 decisive games on this map — gather more before comparing to your overall Mantis performance.
Teamup partners (Season 9+)
How your win rate looks when a teamup partner is on your team versus when they aren't — based on match roster details.
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Context
Extra facts from your history (not the win-rate lifecycle above). More games means a sturdier sample — not a validated recommendation by itself.
Streaks
Current 3W / 0L · longest 8W / 4L
380 games · larger sample
Recent form (last 25)
64% WR over 25 decisive · avg deaths 5.1
25 games · larger sample
After a loss
63% WR in the next game (106W/61L)
167 games · larger sample
After a win
50% WR in the next game (107W/105L)
212 games · larger sample
Combat · Black Widow
n=59 · KDA 8.67 · avg dmg 10314 · avg deaths 2.8
59 games · larger sample
Stronger session game #6
74% WR (n=31) for game #6 in a session
31 games · larger sample
Weaker session game #8
43% WR (n=14) for game #8 in a session
14 games · thin sample
Stronger time · Late Night
60% WR (n=191)
191 games · larger sample
Weaker time · Evening
49% WR (n=81)
81 games · larger sample
Stronger weekday · Mon
61% WR (n=61)
61 games · larger sample
Swap-string matches
Multi-hero keys 36% WR (n=195) vs single 77% (n=185) · 51% of games are multi
380 games · larger sample
Form vs prior window
Last 25: 64% WR vs prior 48% (+16 pts)
25 games · larger sample
Match detail enrichment
Roster on 320 matches · timed swaps on 159
0 games · thin sample
Enemy roster coverage
319/380 decisive games enriched (84%)
319 games · larger sample
Enemy lean · dive
46% WR vs dive-lean enemies (n=37, -10 pts) · community framing
37 games · larger sample
Enemy lean · poke
59% WR vs poke-lean enemies (n=160, +3 pts) · community framing
160 games · larger sample
Notable discoveries
Top Discovery Engine findings (composition, form, trends, …). Quieter than Validated win-rate rules; Comp lean stays community framing.
Multi-hero swaps vs single hero
Multi-character matches: 36% WR vs single-character 77% (-41 pts) over 195+ games.
Correlation · Established · 195 games
Never swapping
Never swapping: 77% WR over 185 decisive games (21 pts vs baseline). Single-hero / no swap segments
Correlation · Established · 185 games
Early swapping
Early swapping: 33% WR over 105 decisive games (-23 pts vs baseline). Opener <50% of focus playtime (swapped early)
Correlation · Established · 105 games
Ally on roster: Devil Dinosaur
When Devil Dinosaur is on your team: 35% WR over 71 games (-21 pts vs baseline).
Synergy · Established · 71 games
Vs enemy The Thing
When The Thing is on the enemy team: 75% WR over 81 decisive games (19 pts vs baseline); role Vanguard; lean rush.
Correlation · Established · 81 games
Enemy role shape V2D2S2
Against enemy role shape V2D2S2: 14% WR over 29 decisive games (-42 pts vs baseline).
Counter · High Confidence · 29 games
Vs enemy Jeff The Land Shark
When Jeff The Land Shark is on the enemy team: 76% WR over 62 decisive games (20 pts vs baseline); role Strategist; lean poke.
Correlation · Established · 62 games
Late swapping
Late swapping: 35% WR over 54 decisive games (-21 pts vs baseline). Opener ≥50% of focus playtime (swapped late)
Correlation · Established · 54 games
Ally role shape V1D2S2
With ally role shape V1D2S2 (rest of team): 96% WR over 28 decisive games (40 pts vs baseline).
Correlation · High Confidence · 28 games
Ally on roster: Doctor Strange
When Doctor Strange is on your team: 40% WR over 67 games (-16 pts vs baseline).
Synergy · Established · 67 games
What the coach sees
Summarize, explain, and prioritize only the evidence below. Do not invent statistics, extrapolate beyond sample sizes, or treat research opportunities as recommendations. Validated and Personal Rule items outrank any external game/meta knowledge. Ignore near-baseline noise; items here already cleared an effect floor. context_facts are extra Analytics facts (streaks, form, after-win/loss, daypart, session index, combat) — cite sample sizes and treat provisional strength as cautious; do not treat them as lifecycle-validated recommendations. notable_discoveries are ranked Discovery Engine findings (composition, session form/streaks, trend, swap timing, contradictions, etc.) — cite n, effect, and confidence_level; quieter than Validated/Personal Rule WR; when lean_framing is true treat as community Comp lean framing (poke/rush/dive), never as a Personal Rule.
{
"personal_rules": [
"Black Widow: 88% WR over 59 decisive games (32 pts above baseline)."
],
"validated": [
"Magneto: 83% WR over 29 decisive games (27 pts above baseline).",
"map Arakko: 79% WR over 24 decisive games (23 pts above baseline).",
"map Celestial Husk: 40% WR over 25 decisive games (16 pts below baseline)."
],
"emerging": [
"Cyclops: 73% WR over 15 decisive games (17 pts above baseline).",
"map Yggdrasill Path: 47% WR over 30 decisive games (9 pts below baseline).",
"map Museum of Contemplation: 46% WR over 24 decisive games (10 pts below baseline).",
"map Heart Of Heaven: 45% WR over 22 decisive games (11 pts below baseline).",
"map Midtown: 65% WR over 26 decisive games (9 pts above baseline).",
"Rocket Raccoon in Quick Match: 67% WR over 15 decisive games (11 pts above baseline).",
"map Krakoa: 64% WR over 25 decisive games (8 pts above baseline).",
"mode Competitive: 50% WR over 28 decisive games (6 pts below baseline).",
"map Hall Of Djalia: 63% WR over 24 decisive games (6 pts above baseline).",
"map Symbiotic Surface: 63% WR over 24 decisive games (6 pts above baseline)."
],
"research": [
"Play 4 more decisive Black Widow games on Yggdrasill Path.",
"Play 5 more decisive Black Widow games on Symbiotic Surface.",
"Play 8 more decisive Devil Dinosaur games on Arakko.",
"Play 8 more decisive Mantis games on Shin-Shibuya.",
"Play 8 more decisive Magneto games on Heart Of Heaven.",
"Play 8 more decisive Magneto games on Museum of Contemplation.",
"Play 9 more decisive Cyclops games on Midtown.",
"Play 9 more decisive Cyclops games on Hell's Heaven.",
"Play 9 more decisive Devil Dinosaur games on Shin-Shibuya.",
"Play 9 more decisive Mantis games on Royal Palace."
],
"context_facts": [
{
"label": "Streaks",
"summary": "Current 3W / 0L · longest 8W / 4L",
"n": 380
},
{
"label": "Recent form (last 25)",
"summary": "64% WR over 25 decisive · avg deaths 5.1",
"n": 25
},
{
"label": "After a loss",
"summary": "63% WR in the next game (106W/61L)",
"n": 167
},
{
"label": "After a win",
"summary": "50% WR in the next game (107W/105L)",
"n": 212
},
{
"label": "Combat · Black Widow",
"summary": "n=59 · KDA 8.67 · avg dmg 10314 · avg deaths 2.8",
"n": 59
},
{
"label": "Stronger session game #6",
"summary": "74% WR (n=31) for game #6 in a session",
"n": 31
},
{
"label": "Weaker session game #8",
"summary": "43% WR (n=14) for game #8 in a session",
"n": 14
},
{
"label": "Stronger time · Late Night",
"summary": "60% WR (n=191)",
"n": 191
},
{
"label": "Weaker time · Evening",
"summary": "49% WR (n=81)",
"n": 81
},
{
"label": "Stronger weekday · Mon",
"summary": "61% WR (n=61)",
"n": 61
},
{
"label": "Swap-string matches",
"summary": "Multi-hero keys 36% WR (n=195) vs single 77% (n=185) · 51% of games are multi",
"n": 380
},
{
"label": "Form vs prior window",
"summary": "Last 25: 64% WR vs prior 48% (+16 pts)",
"n": 25
},
{
"label": "Match detail enrichment",
"summary": "Roster on 320 matches · timed swaps on 159",
"n": 0
},
{
"label": "Enemy roster coverage",
"summary": "319/380 decisive games enriched (84%)",
"n": 319
},
{
"label": "Enemy lean · dive",
"summary": "46% WR vs dive-lean enemies (n=37, -10 pts) · community framing",
"n": 37
},
{
"label": "Enemy lean · poke",
"summary": "59% WR vs poke-lean enemies (n=160, +3 pts) · community framing",
"n": 160
}
],
"notable_discoveries": [
{
"title": "Multi-hero swaps vs single hero",
"category": "Correlation",
"n": 195,
"confidence": "Established"
},
{
"title": "Never swapping",
"category": "Correlation",
"n": 185,
"confidence": "Established"
},
{
"title": "Early swapping",
"category": "Correlation",
"n": 105,
"confidence": "Established"
},
{
"title": "Ally on roster: Devil Dinosaur",
"category": "Synergy",
"n": 71,
"confidence": "Established"
},
{
"title": "Vs enemy The Thing",
"category": "Correlation",
"n": 81,
"confidence": "Established"
},
{
"title": "Enemy role shape V2D2S2",
"category": "Counter",
"n": 29,
"confidence": "High Confidence"
},
{
"title": "Vs enemy Jeff The Land Shark",
"category": "Correlation",
"n": 62,
"confidence": "Established"
},
{
"title": "Late swapping",
"category": "Correlation",
"n": 54,
"confidence": "Established"
},
{
"title": "Ally role shape V1D2S2",
"category": "Correlation",
"n": 28,
"confidence": "High Confidence"
},
{
"title": "Ally on roster: Doctor Strange",
"category": "Synergy",
"n": 67,
"confidence": "Established"
}
]
}